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@Lana@beige.party

2026-09-24 21:37 UTC

Okay I'm a teacher so let me explain this in as simple a way as I know how. Let's say you wake up with a brilliant new billion dollar idea for a brand new product: "Bottled Piss". You pee in a bottle and sell it as a drink. You're so convinced in the profitability of this idea that you invest in a bottling plant so big that it's capable of bottling a billion Bottles of Piss a day. You hire employees to run the plant. To provide the piss. To create the labels and the packaging. And further, let's also assume that you're so damn good at convincing other people that Bottled Piss is the next greatest thing since sliced bread that retailers start setting aside shelf space in their stores to stock Bottled Piss. Some even approach you to pre-purchase their own specialty branded Bottled Piss to sell in their stores. Both you and the retailers run enormous advertising campaigns and promotional spots showing scantily clad bikini models drinking Bottled Piss and smiling at the camera. Once a week or so, for months, a huge news story hits the press about the newest and greatest version of Bottled Piss and how its electrolytes will change the beverage industry forever. Now, all of that - every single thing I've written about above - NONE of it is "demand" for Bottled Piss. What you have there is billions and billions of dollars spent in creating the infrastructure for the SUPPLY of Bottled Piss. And, until a few billion actual human beings start trundling into their nearest 7-11 and going over to the Bottled Piss aisle and happily handing over actual dollars for several dozen bottles of Bottled Piss every single day - until that happens, what you do NOT have is "demand for Bottled Piss". There, now you understand why I can confidently say there is NO DEMAND for Frontier AI. You are completely up to speed on the entire economics of it. Anthropic and OpenAI, they're the bottling plant. They're making the Bottled Piss. That is not demand. That is supply. Uber and Microsoft and others are the retailers, setting aside shelf space for rows and rows of Bottled Piss, purchased from the Bottled Piss company down the road. They're slapping their own corporate labels on it, and calling it everything from Chatgpt to Claude. But it's still just Bottled Piss. And I don't care if they pre-ordered a bunch of it direct from the Bottled Piss bottling plant. That is still not demand. That is supply. Until you show me the billions of people happily handing over their hard earned money in direct exchange for Frontier AI prompt tokens - until that happens, there is no demand for Frontier AI. What we are seeing is trillions of dollars spent building the infrastructure for the SUPPLY chain for Frontier AI, all in the hopes that at some point in the future, those billions of happy Bottled Piss drinkers will show up.

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