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  Most of my beliefs are false. I assign 50% probability that Mexico City is west of 30⁰ W when I typed "30⁰ W", and now I've thought about it for a minute I'm 99.99% sure^1^. Now I looked it up on Wikipedia and thought some more and I'm at least 99.99999999999% sure^1^. I knew at the start something like this would happen and that "There 50% probability that Mexico City is west of 30⁰ W" was never true about the world in the way it is true that there is 50% chance...

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  Ah, no wonder you're having a epistemological crisis then. It must be hard only being able to do binary (true/false) logic when thinking about your own reasoning. I'm sorry you're going through that. I understand that intellectually you may have given the possibility that I'm at least partially right about reasoning zero credence. But, like, come oooon. You must remember times in your own life when you learned new ways of reasoning and changed your confidence in your beliefs as...

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  Why on god's green earth would you believe meta-beliefs to be true "by definition"? Historically there have been so many changes to meta-beliefs, from divine inspiration to bayes' law. I have memories of my meta-beliefs changing as a child, and honestly my meta-beliefs even change depending on my mood. So why the heck would I not expect the same to be possible in the future? As far as I can tell, subjective belief probabilities are a sort of integration over forward propagatio...

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  Could you explain why you think what I said means it doesn't work?

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  Doesn't this problem dissolve if you see yourself as holding a nonbinary personal level of confidence based on your own experiences and information? Of course people with different experiences are going to hold different beliefs, I haven't seen what they've seen and vice versa. If both of us knew the whole truth we would agree, but we don't so we disagree. The bigger problem in practice, IMO, is that confidence is entangled with social-political weight. Someone who qualifies the...

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  No, I'm an anarchist.

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  I think Doctorow is casting the net too wide here. By this definition, bonsai is enshittifying trees. Tennis is enshittifying your opponent’s field position. Gardening is enshittifying plants. For me, a key part of enshittification is the initial investment. Creating something tempting and underpriced that pulls people in, and then pulling the rug from under them. So if we must generalize outside of tech, then suburbs are enshittified cities, because they’re cheap to build and expensive to mai...

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  Being able to tell each other complicated information is empowering. If you can't read well you will be taken advantage of. Taking back your ability to read is a victory over your schools that were built to keep you down. I don't know how to help you, but I hope you find a way to win it back.

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  tl;dr: [Another paper](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298) on the [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation) shutdown just dropped, bumping the reduction of circulation by the year 2100 from 32 ± 37% to 51 ± 8%. This means it is now certain that there will be catastrophic consequences through this particular form of climate change. Capitalist media don't tell you this because they're capitalist....

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  What's 20c?

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  He went grey. [Here's a quick mockup I did in GIMP, making 1992 Magneto gray-haired](https://i.imgur.com/FEu9GXK.jpeg).