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@8r3n7@mstdn.ca

2026-09-19 14:23 UTC

I expect people to have irrational expectations, and consequently, to act irrationally and unpredictably. (Including myself, I guess.) I would like to know, if it is possible to know, what reasonable expectations for human behaviour might be. Other than to have no specific expectations at all. Just when you think people are predictable, they surprise you. The difference, really, is whether your expectations are for individuals or populations. Like predicting the motions of particles in a gas or liquid. Individuals behave erratically, but the collectives behave probabilistically. Most people don't understand probability, and can't make probabilistic predictions. Maybe we could teach them, but their ability to learn and apply such knowledge would itself follow probabilistic rules. Probability is a bitch. And she works in mysterious ways.

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