If we selected 100 dev teams at random, 50% using AI coding tools extensively and 50% not using them at all, how does the best available data suggest we could tell them apart without seeing them work? The teams using AI extensively would, on average, have: * Higher throughput than in 2023 * Longer lead times than in 2023 * Shorter mean-time to failure than in 2023 * Longer mean-time to recovery than in 2023 If we just went by *business* outcomes, we probably wouldn't be able to tell at all.