American politics is so fucking whack, but I’m still gonna say he has no chance and if I get egg on my face I get egg on my face. Big part of how Trump one was playing both sides with the tough guy act but also lying that he’d stay out of foreign entanglements. Hegseth is pure tough guy act, and also started and lost a war with Iran, so he has absolutely no ability to court the libertarian/isolationist-minded people on the right who felt burned by Bush. It seems like he’s just delusional and has bought into his own propaganda.