Famously, doctors struggle with base rates and similar cognitive biases around likelihood ( see: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247373134_Physicians_neglect_base_rates_and_it_matters or https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2753.2001.00284.x ) Really, we all struggle with base rates We are trained to think about population level averages. Our minds like to anchor on large known patterns. But most moments of detective work are about winnowing through conditional probabilities