I learned that the Great Depression’s first decisive symptom of systemic failure was the stock market crash of 1929, but the bank failures that would affect the normal investor didn’t happen until 1933, a full four years later. The recent subprime crisis started in early 2007 but didn’t cause Lehman Bros to collapse and TARP to be signed until late 2008. There have been some who theorize that the #AI bubble burst will be similarly slow-rolling. But I think it’ll be more rapid than that, because a lot more people have money in the stock market today, and because there are probably a couple trillion dollars in deals that will literally evaporate overnight if OpenAI or Anthropic has cashflow problems, which are directly tied to GDP growth numbers. I think the shockwave will travel through the system in months, not years. #ai #bubble #pop