Post #1712152 · Elektrine

2026-04-24 00:52 UTC

Even if current weakens it won't make Europe cold. Main effect will be extreme hot subtropical ocean and stronger hurricanes in Caribbean and south US. Those hotter sea levels will still distribute heat along the main current path. But Europe will get warmer because Atlantic gets warmer without current. Hot water spreads naturally, and hot air temperatures make water warmer. Continuous dropping of Artic ice levels, especially the winter maximums, means very long summer warming periods and very high fall arctic ocean temps, means steady ocean temperatures at UK level. AMOC collapse theory is based on accelerated Artic melting. But what's happening so far, last decade or so, is less freezing happening each year. At the time the theory was developed, global warming was led by Arctic region, warming 3-4x faster than rest of planet. Rest of planet has caught up without maintaining that ratio.

Replies (2)

@magiccupcake@lemmy.world 2026-04-24 05:17

AMOC is weakening because of salinity changes, not temperature. There's still a lot of glacier ice on Greenland that melt and disrupt the current. AMOC carries a lot of heat that is not likely to be replaced if it fails. Atmosphere convection doesn't have the heat capacity, so only logical conclusion is that temperatures in europe must drop. And based on research people have done, it's not gonna be a small amount. If you want a fun math (and a little physics) exercise, we can estimate how much heat AMOC carries from the equator to northern europe, and also try to see how much air it's heating in the atmosphere. From here it gets a bit more complicated as we have to estimate the the incoming solar radiation and earths radiative cooling. But from there you could compare estimated temperatures with and without AMOC heating.

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@DigitalMus@feddit.dk 2026-04-24 05:15

Would you happen to have some references reæated the these statements? I would like to read more about recent developments.

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